Day three of the Ebor Festival gets underway with a very tricky one mile four furlong handicap. The Knavesmire has lived up to it’s billing as the Graveyard of Favourites so far, with the Fuege and Newfangled yesterday’s victims.

2.00 Sky Bet Mobile Handicap

The two I did like (before Pricewise pounced on the former late yesterday evening) were Willie Wag Tail and Rio’s Rosanna.

Willie Wag Tail was still pretty much last over a furlong out in a similar handicap at Glorious Goodwood after meeting a troubled passage through the race, before flying home to get into a respectable eighth place.

From stall four he should be able to get a nice toe into the race, and as they fan out upon coming down the Knavesmire home straight he can quicken up the centre.

Rio’s Rosanna has shown herself to be a York specialist over recent weeks, following a win in a course and distance handicap with a good third behind Bollin Greta back in July. Off just 2lbs higher today, and with the stable of Richard Whitaker in amongst the winners, she could go close at a decent price.

Front runners such as Silvery Moon, Late Telegraph, Fennell Bay and Expert Fighter will have to be setting Frankel-like fractions early on in order to get to the front from their wide draws, and even if they do manage this their early exertions may hamper their chances in the latter stages of the race.

Horses such as Silver Lime and Martin Chuzzelwhit demand respect as unexposed 3yo’s, especially the former given Sir Michael Stoute has opted for the first time visor on that one. His third at Chester was a pretty good run as well, given the ground was ridiculously soft on that occasion and he bid valiantly to make all from the front. Having said that, the form of the race has not really been franked by the winner since.

A few of these are also relatively untried over the distance. Kirthill fits into that category entirely, but the worry would be an alarmingly low strike rate that Luca Cumani holds on this course. He has improved that with a couple of winners this season, but may still struggle off top weight.

Stand To Reason and Tropical Beat have both run once over today’s trip, and although both did encounter some trouble in running they had enough time in the clear after that to get closer had they been up to it.

John Biscuit has been harshly treated by the handicapper after being raised 3lbs for a one length third in the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot. He brings his upwardly mobile profile into this contest – but will need to improve considerably again on what he has shown so far to trouble the judge.

 

Back Willie Wag Tail @ 11/2 with Betfred (2pts)
Back Rio’s Rosanna @ 20/1 E/W with Betfred (1pt)

 

Claim Your Free £50 Bonus Now